Just like everybody else the last months I also got the crypto fever. As an early adopter I still cannot believe that I just got into this world now and not 7 years ago! It would have made me a very wealthy man.
But unfortunately we still don’t have technology to change the past so lets move on to something we do have influence on, the future! Some will say its a big step from image recognition to price prediction. But actually its not. It doesn’t matter for a neural network to train it to predict if there is a nice rooftop bar in an image or predict if the bitcoin price will go down or up the next hour. Of course the setup of the framework is completely different but in general its about predictions.
So, crypto currency price predictions. What do we have here? There are lets say 10 major exchanges that trade around 98% of around 2000 currencies around. Most of them a worthless coins with no time to waist on. Then there is this top 20 list of coins that really begin to matter. In value but also what the coins represent like decentralized power management (POWR) or social payment with Reddcoin (RDD) and so on.
The holy grail of price prediction. Everyone is dreaming to become an overnight millionaire and in crypto there is a much bigger chance than when you participate in a lottery. To lift our chances a bit up we can apply some machine learning and CNN and RNN’s to the job. There is data, there is a massive load of market data from the exchanges, and data is the fuel for creating good prediction models.
The last 2 months we have been testing ideas to get somewhat accurate results in predicting 1 minute to 60 minute price fluctuations. Very interesting process I must say. What we discovered is actually a sort of crypto eco system. When Bitcoin rises other coins are rising with them and other coins go down. And there are coins who have more effect on price fluctuation like Ethereum.
See it as our solar system. All planets dance around the BTC sun. Some of them close and get hot and other orbiting further away less influenced by the sun but still in the solar system. Jupiter is Ethereum, with its own moons. A lot of moons actually.
For price prediction this is very interesting because an increase in for example IOT its most profitable to trade it for its counterpart for maximum profit. With so many coins in motion its giant flow of predictions and trades. Then there is also the matter what your goal is? Trade for as many BTC or USDT? big difference. Its about faith.
In my next post I will be sharing some plots of our first predictions and backtests. When we have a live version I will be sharing predictions on my Twitter account.